Asymptotic Exit Location Distributions in the Stochastic Exit Problem

Consider a two-dimensional continuous-time dynamical system, with an attracting fixed point $S$. If the deterministic dynamics are perturbed by white noise (random perturbations) of strength $\epsilon$, the system state will eventually leave the domain of attraction $\Omega$ of $S$. We analyse the case when, as $\epsilon\to0$, the exit location on the boundary $\partial\Omega$ is increasingly concentrated near a saddle point $H$ of the deterministic dynamics. We show that the asymptotic form of the exit location distribution on $\partial\Omega$ is generically non-Gaussian and asymmetric, and classify the possible limiting distributions. A key role is played by a parameter $\mu$, equal to the ratio $|\lambda_s(H)|/\lambda_u(H)$ of the stable and unstable eigenvalues of the linearized deterministic flow at $H$. If $\mu<1$ then the exit location distribution is generically asymptotic as $\epsilon\to0$ to a Weibull distribution with shape parameter $2/\mu$, on the $O(\epsilon^{\mu/2})$ length scale near $H$. If $\mu>1$ it is generically asymptotic to a distribution on the $O(\epsilon^{1/2})$ length scale, whose moments we compute. The asymmetry of the asymptotic exit location distribution is attributable to the generic presence of a `classically forbidden' region: a wedge-shaped subset of $\Omega$ with $H$ as vertex, which is reached from $S$, in the $\epsilon\to0$ limit, only via `bent' (non-smooth) fluctuational paths that first pass through the vicinity of $H$. We deduce from the presence of this forbidden region that the classical Eyring formula for the small-$\epsilon$ exponential asymptotics of the mean first exit time is generically inapplicable.Comment: This is a 72-page Postscript file, about 600K in length. Hardcopy requests to [email protected] or [email protected]

Branching of the Falkner-Skan solutions for λ < 0

The Falkner-Skan equation f'" + ff" + λ(1 - f'^2) = 0, f(0) = f'(0) = 0, is discussed for λ < 0. Two types of problems, one with f'(∞) = 1 and another with f'(∞) = -1, are considered. For λ = 0- a close relation between these two types is found. For λ < -1 both types of problem allow multiple solutions which may be distinguished by an integer N denoting the number of zeros of f' - 1. The numerical results indicate that the solution branches with f'(∞) = 1 and those with f'(∞) = -1 tend towards a common limit curve as N increases indefinitely. Finally a periodic solution, existing for λ < -1, is presented.

Heterogeneity and the dynamics of technology adoption

We estimate the demand for a videocalling technology in the presence of both network effects and heterogeneity. Using a unique dataset from a large multinational firm, we pose and estimate a fully dynamic model of technology adoption. We propose a novel identification strategy based on post-adoption technology usage to disentangle equilibrium beliefs concerning the evolution of the network from observed and unobserved heterogeneity in technology adoption costs and use benefits. We find that employees have significant heterogeneity in both adoption costs and network benefits, and have preferences for diverse networks. Using our estimates, we evaluate a number of counterfactual adoption policies, and find that a policy of strategically targeting the right subtype for initial adoption can lead to a faster-growing and larger network than a policy of uncoordinated or diffuse adoption